Tuesday, December 24, 2013

My Beneficiary IRA Investment Strategy; First Take

I feel that this site is a good place to communicate and maybe even to some extent work through an investment plan I intend to execute for a Beneficiary IRA I have recently opened. This strategy is not advice, merely a transparent view as to what I intend to do; others in similar situations can do as they wish with this information. Readers are encouraged to review my investment strategy primer by clicking "Investment Notes" at http://www.foothill.edu/bss/people/moglen-david/index.php.
There are many sites from which one can draw up watchlists. Stock picks can be tracked at sites like yahoo finance or Google finance, but since I have a regular investment account at Sharebuilder.com, I like the simplicity and some other aspects of keeping watchlists there. When I frequently log in to view my watchlists, which I feel should be constructed well before buying any shares, what I am skimming the list for is any stock that has moved up or down by more than two percent, or at least moved more than 1.5%. Any daily variance less than that is probably just noise.
For the Beneficiary IRA I took the extra step of listing potential targets (all of which are already on my Sharebuilder watchlists) into an excel spreadsheet with the following columns: Ticker Symbol, Dividend Yield, Cash per share (as a %), PE Ratio, and Payout Ratio. All of these are easily available to the public even without starting an account at Sharebuilder and other investment sites.
Next I want to divide targets into (up to) five buckets, which I call A, B, C, D, and E. Bucket A is the best - high dividend and stable at a reasonable price on a PE ratio basis. There are two clear Bucket A stocks for me so far, AT&T and Verizon. Bucket B would be incrementally less ideal; most likely, based on the "blue chip" or "dividend aristocrat" large-cap and mega-cap selections I'm targeting, the shortcoming of groups B, C, D, etc. are lower yields than AT&T, and then possibly other worse metrics in other excel columns specified.
I would like to see a market pullback (which we may get around mid-to-late February or early March based on debt ceiling wrangling in DC) but whether we get one or not, at some point I have to start a position in some stocks. Here is the opening allocation. Note that everything I want to buy is not bought on the same day or in the same week. I will stagger purchase dates through several months in 2014, maybe even across the majority of the year's 12 months, for opening positions in each stock. But at some point, here is the opening allocation: Group A stocks: $500. Group B stocks: $450. Group C stocks: $400. Group D stocks: $350. Group E stocks: $300.
Scaling: when any of these solid, well-established dividend paying large- and mega-cap stocks falls 8% to 15% (the higher end of this range is for markets or securities subject to greater volatility) then I will add to that position in an amount that is $50-$150 greater than my initial buy-in for that stock. For example, let's say it was a group C stock with $400 initially bought. Whether this second buy is more like an additional $550 in shares or just $450 more in the position depends how much conviction you have about the firm's prospects. All of the scaling (buying more as it went down) is dependent on the underlying "thesis" - strength of the company - having not changed materially. In other words, it is not at apparent risk of imminent bankruptcy. This should be the case for all firms being considered (I don't think Cisco or Phizer are going bankrupt in the near future, if ever) but it is a caveat worth mentioning.
If a stock, especially one in the A or B categories, has gone up only a little (less than 10%) then I would probably buy an additional round of their shares the same as I was for those that had gone down (traditional scaling). If it had gone up more than 10%, I would have to be extremely confident in further price gains and/or dividend increases to buy more. In keeping with all this, I would probably buy a second $500 round of some or all "A" stocks within six months if they have not skyrocketed unnaturally.
This is a good start to understand my main intended strategy. A smaller, much riskier portion may involve buying a handful of mortgage REITs (mREITs) but doing so requires much more of investors - more frequent and thorough research on the sector, a strong stomach for the price roller coaster, more frequent (preferably daily) monitoring, and occasional use of stop-limit orders when price drops (capital loss) are too much to stomach. This portion of the portfolio defines reaching for dividend yield, which conventional advice says to never do, but I feel for my portfolio I can reach for a certain amount of steroidal dividend yield at the cost of more likely and more extensive capital loss as long as I take the stated actions to respect the substantial risk as I go in. As mentioned, the majority strategy (everything stated before this paragraph) constitutes what I believe is a responsible approach to my Beneficiary IRA.
Let me know what you think. I'm interested in ideas or comments. It should be an interesting ride.