Descriptions of Mutual Funds Designed and Created by David Moglen

I promise at some point soon I will post some policy ideas that will justify the name of this blog. That said, I do think the democratization of the mutual fund industry that I have been plugging in so many posts is a progressive economic development. Until then, here is my latest update:

The David Moglen Funds are all available for purchase through your www.MotifInvesting.com
account. I can send you an invitation email that will explain how to get your cash incentive (currently $100 – I copied the details below in this posting) essentially for completing one trade. Or feel free to buy all six of the Funds I have now. It is all your investment. There is 0% management fee on your money. Feel free to email me at davidmoglen@hotmail.com if you are interested. I can also provide more info and the site’s customer service is very helpful too.

Below are the descriptions of the funds I have created. At their website www.MotifInvesting.com you can see the exact percent allocation of the stock picks within each fund. I also provide below an update including current dividend yield, performance since inception (inception date is March to August 2013 for all the funds I created), and any other interesting notes on that particular “motif” – the sectoral theme (or thematic sector) of that fund.


David Moglen Fund Descriptions and Updates:


Crack Spread Capitalists

The "Crack Spread" is the margin between crude oil prices and those of refined gasoline. And who is it that receives the gap between how much all that crude in barrels costs and the price of your gas at the station when you fill up every week? It becomes the profit of the refiners, these "Crack Spread Capitalists."

Update: These seem to be very solid companies to me like Valero and Marathon Energy. It has a surprisingly think 3.6% dividend yield.

Return since inception: 3.5%
Current dividend yield: 3.6%




Let’s Go to the Mall

The Let’s Go to the Mall portfolio includes a substantial percentage of the high quality retailers the American consumer would stroll past or stop by as they meander through their nearest shopping mall. Investors are well aware of the presentation of these stores, their ubiquity and their attention to personal customer service. Any time consumer confidence rises or gas prices fall, you might want to go to the mall.

Update: Retail has had a bad twelve months amid warning of secular (read: Amazon-induced) decline, but this is a play on the consumer. If consumer sentiment awakens, this could do even better than it has. Somehow my picks in this challenged sector are still up 16.3% since the fund was created.

Return since inception: 16.3%
Current dividend yield: 1.1%


Ultra High-Dividend Fund

The Ultra High-Dividend Fund targets a range of promising securities providing an aggressive total return via dividends and capital gains. This fund features, at one end of the spectrum, companies such as REITs, Private Equity, and pipeline stocks which have proven their ability to pay nearly double-digit (and several above ten percent) dividend yields annually. At the other end of the spectrum, selections have more moderate yields of about four percent combined with greater potential for capital gains through their market leadership, long-term track records, and/or secular growth positioning. All of these yield-based selections are additionally screened for cash-rich balance sheets, mandatory current profitability, and inexpensiveness on price-earnings and price-book bases.

Update: This was the fund idea that started it all, the original mREIT-packed motif. All my high-dividend funds were started at a peak of their sectoral share price, especially in REITs and even more especially in mREITS. Coming off that high, the dividends remain fat and these all seem to be good ideas as long as Janet Yellen plans to remain the Fed Chair.

Return since inception: -10.8%
Current dividend yield: 12.4%


Ultra High Dividend Focused

This Ultra High Dividend Focused fund applies the same objectives as the original Ultra High Dividend fund by David Moglen on Motif Investing, but contains only those securities that yield over 10% in annual dividend payouts for Real Estate Investment Trust or Private Equity, and yielding over 6% for Pipelines. Such a focused standard for dividend payouts results in all of the holdings being either REITs, Private Equity-related firms, or Pipeline's common stock. At inception, this fund has a total dividend cash payout (yield) of 11.94% at a very inexpensive Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 7.4.

Update: This offshoot of the original Ultra High-Dividend Fund is meant to be its forbear, its predecessor’s doppelganger on steroids. It is the Imperial India Pale Ale or Double IPA to the original’s classic IPA. Given that its dividend of 13.7% is only 1.3% above that of its ancestor fund, and the original also had about half the capital loss since inception, it is clear the risk-to-reward calculus has been much better with the original Ultra High-Dividend Fund. However, I would never restrict a DIPA fan to an IPA, no matter how fantastic it was.

Return since inception: -19.7%
Current dividend yield: 13.7%


Ultra High Dividend Diversified

This Ultra High Dividend Diversified fund applies the same objectives as the original Ultra High Dividend fund by David Moglen on Motif Investing, but adds additional securities to provide cross-company diversification. The additional stocks still keep to the same standard of seeking the maximal balance of exceedingly high dividend cash payouts combined with reliability in terms of ability to maintain or even increase earnings and dividends.

Update: To extend the analogy, this fund is the regular pale ale to the original Ultra High-Dividend Fund’s IPA. Less adventurous, safer, but still with a significantly revved-up dividend of 9.7% which implies an edgy amount of risk and decent inclusion of mREITs.

Return since inception: -12.9%
Current dividend yield: 9.7%



Content is King

Firms such as CBS and Viacom, who make entertainment content, can expect to do very well in this era when conventional and new digital and mobile channels are both competing for their output. TV, film, music and educational materials will be increasingly accessed online and via mobile devices. This expectation is validated by the move among content delivery firms (Comcast, Netflix, Amazon etc.) to buy, own, and produce more and more of their own content. However, in keeping with the principles of value investing, this fund will only hold (upon inception) currently profitable firms with relatively inexpensive (on a price-earnings basis) stock prices. Therefore, for example, Comcast would be eligible for inclusion but not Netflix or Amazon.

Update: The clear star in returns since mid-2013 with 32.9% gain on your investment, I still think we are in the early innings of the mobile revolution and the added demand for content it will fuel.

Return since inception: 32.9%
Current dividend yield: 1.2%



Terms of conditions to receive the $100s in your account – (email me at davidmoglen@hotmail.com if you want me to send you the email invitation for this):

Eeach friend must use the link in your Motif invite to open their accounts. The link creates a unique electronic cookie as an identifier. Therefore, your friend's cookie setting must be enabled. Your friend's new funds must be posted to their new account within 10 calendar days of account opening, and must remain in the account for 45 calendar days. Once your friend's first motif trade is executed, you and your friend will each receive a $100 credit to your Motif Investing non-retirement accounts - or a $100 Amazon gift certificate via email if you, as the referrer, don't have a Motif Investing non-retirement account - within 30 calendar days after the end of the 45-calendar-day period is complete.

For your referral to quality for the offer, you and your friend must not reside at the same address. Only one friend referral and $100 bonus per address is eligible. Your friend cannot be an existing Motif member or trading account holder.

Commission fees are not reimbursable as part of this offer. This offer is not valid for retirement accounts, such as IRAs, and cannot be combined with any other offers from Motif Investing, and is not transferrable. Limit one account bonus per referred household. Motif Investing reserves the right to terminate this offer at any time and to refuse or recover any promotion award if, in Motif Investing's sole opinion, it was obtained under wrongful or fraudulent circumstances, that inaccurate or incomplete information was provided in opening the account, or that any terms of the Account Agreement have been violated. This offer is not applicable to associates or affiliated associates (including contractors, interns, and temporary employees) of Motif Investing and their immediate family members. You and your friends must meet requirements for applying for, establishing, and maintaining a Motif Investing trading account in good standing, in order to participate. Offer valid for residents of the U.S. and must be at least 18 years of age to be eligible.

Standard pricing: $9.95 total commission per motif transaction, or pay $4.95 per stock for individual transactions within a motif. Other fees may apply. For details on fees and commissions, please click here.

Random Thoughts, Especially on mREITSs

I think it is well worthwhile to set up a (free) account at seekingalpha.com. They have in-depth articles about sectors and securities that are deeper and more inclusive than most other sites. Within my favorite play, seeking dividends, there is a category I have discussed in previous posts, the mREITSs (Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts). While I also like some normal REITs, the mREITSs are a different animal, to put it mildly. With more risk and more reward, they are somewhat like regular REITs on steroids. As the "Investment Notes" primer I referred to previously mentions, I don't like anything that is a recent IPO. But mREITSs have so many additional risks already that having been a recent IPO is just one more thing and a negative I can overlook while carefully monitoring share price retention and enjoying the outsized dividend. In this vein, today I started reading a few positive briefs about EARN.

One I have watched and invested in much longer is WMC. Since I wanted the big special dividend they announced, I found it interesting that the announcements all said they would send a form to allow you to opt for your payment in cash or more shares. Having never received such a form, I was concerned, but these fears were alleviated when I read the comments section of a seekingalpha.com article found via a google search about it where some investors were saying, help, where is my letter, and the response by other users was that WMC will go with whatever you selected for your dividend reinvestment preference on your trading platform. This begged the (probably forever unanswered question) of why WMC bothered to say they would send a form for you to select how you wanted your dividend if they were just going to go by what you put down for your preferences in your regular trading platform.

The day after the "pay date" for the WMC special dividend, it came through to all three of my accounts where I had tried to get it; my Traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and standard Sharebuilder account. Having requested it to be paid in all cash but knowing that they had said in their announcements on the special dividend that they would pay all cash to those who requested this form up to the extent they could, and in the (very likely, in my estimation) event that more people wanted all cash than they could afford, then at least 34% would be cash and the rest paid in more shares. As it turns out, 41% was paid in cash and the rest was received in additional WMC shares.

Also I have seen numerous accounts now that when a security pays a dividend, the exchanges "reach in" and lower the share price by the amount of the dividend. This is very disconcerting, seems improper, and a violation of free market principles. Even more arbitrary, I've seen it written that in some cases they do not make this manipulation and instead just leave the dividend-paying stock alone. I certainly agree with David Van Knapp, who is apparently one of the more acclaimed and followed authors at seekingalpha.com, that this practice (artificial manipulation of share prices by the exchanges) is unnecessary, wrong, and should stop. But since it probably won't stop, we dividend seekers will just suffer through it.

To be a Stock Picker or sit back and buy a Broad-Market Index ETF - That is the Question.

Bloomberg.com had a brief about how 2013 exemplified the conventional advice to retail investors (or even all investors) that it is incredibly unlikely to beat the market consistently (if at all) so the best thing to do is "buy the market." Buying all the stocks with one trade or a few trades may sound impossible but it is actually very easy to buy essentially all the stocks in the market with an investment as small as about $100 (or as large as you want to invest). The way one can "buy the market" is by purchasing an ETF (exchange traded fund) that tracks the market. The most popular of these broader market ETFs are:
1. To buy the S&P 500, the symbol is SPY
2. To buy the Nasdaq's largest 100 firms, the symbol is QQQ
3. To buy the New York Stock Exchange, the symbol is NYC
4. To buy the Dow Jones, the symbol is DIA
Since the broad market as a whole was up 30% in 2013, it is very hard to beat that. So all of the concepts I offer are remiss if I don't mention the simple option, to buy some or all of the four ETFs ("Index Funds") listed above, maybe add in some broad-market ETFs representing Europe (such as the IEV) and the developing world, and call it a day. But why do I share Jim Cramer's anti-conventional wisdom view that the retail investor should do their own research and try to beat the broader market? There is not really a simple answer to that unless I want to say foolish optimism so I will give it short-shrift and reply: stock picking is more fun and more interesting than buying index funds.
For what it's worth, since I'm ignoring the safer, easier index fund route, here is that blurb from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-31/levine-on-wall-street-buy-an-index-fund-and-play-golf.html

'The Wall Street Journal has an amusing article about how the best investing strategies in 2013 were of the form 'buy all the stocks, wait,' rather than, like, time the market or pick the best stocks or mess around with gold. (Though here's another thing from the Journal about 2013's five best-performing stocks, all up more than 100 percent and all, um, stock-picker's stocks. Tesla, Netflix, Best Buy, Twitter, Herbalife.) Here is a man who is paid to invest other people's money:
'All of the sales we made this year have been mistakes,' said David Rolfe, chief investment officer of St. Louis's Wedgewood Partners, which has $7 billion of assets under management. 'If you could've just invested in one of the major indexes, and worked on your golf game the rest of the year, you would've hit a home run.'
You could have! That is totally an opportunity that is available now, for investors anyway. 'We throw your money in an index fund and play golf' is not a great ad for an asset management firm though."

So, yeah. And can I claim I was up more than 30% this year? No I cannot. All things considered, meaning change in asset values I continue to hold, dividends received or reinvested, and capital gains minus capital losses on sold securities, would total, I'm fairly sure, under 30%. I have not done the math yet and I don't know of a system that tracks all this for you in one simple number for the year. One thing I did learn is that with the ultra-high yielders (namely, mREITs) if you are willing to see a bunch of red-ink capital loss in your portfolio, the dividends will roll in. These may be the type of investment where stop-limit orders are useful to cap losses at 10% or 12%. Otherwise I got the worst of both worlds which was a roughly 20% capital loss on several of these types of securities, which I locked in by selling (aghast at the red ink bleeding out of them) thereby also foregoing their juicy dividends after a short period of receiving it.

Partly because I found that in the Merrill Lynch beneficiary IRA I did not in fact qualify for the 30 free trades per month I had been promised, I used a more loosely defined investment amount for each security than described in my last blog post. I still referred to the A, B, C, D, and E designations but the actual investment amount was more instinctual and did not adhere so closely to the categories that each stock in, say, the B category had to have the same invested amount. I also added an additional column to the spreadsheet I described in the last post, which is for the ex-dividend date. This can be found at dividend.com and tells you the day after the date you would have to buy (at the latest) to receive the next dividend. If you miss the ex-div date it's fine, but if you want that dividend you have to make sure to be in on the security by the day before the ex-div date. Some of my columns on the roughly 40 stocks and ETFs were left blank. For example, some securities which I felt more comfortable with only had the ticker symbol and dividend yield filled out. When I buy, I always use limit orders for the order type (same thing when I sell, never using market orders). Because I stated a low-ball price, not all of the 34 orders have gone through. At last check, 14 buys had gone through and since I selected "GTC" Good til cancelled on all my orders, they are still open for 6 months and will go through (execute) if the stock falls to my stated price. In fact when you do the first order (or any subsequent order) MerrillEdge lets you pre-fill out the order form so certain options are already prepared for you when you then go to place another order.

How did I arrive at this low-ball price? Simple: I placed my limit buy orders at a price that was equal to the lowest of the following three prices for each given security:
1. It's lowest price that past day (publicly available on all trading sites including MerrillEdge.com and Sharebuilder.com)
2. The bid price (viewable when you go to place the order and enter the ticker symbol)
3. An after hours trading price (seen by entering the ticker symbol at CNBC.com)

A few more strategies I have used are to search now and then for firms with big insider buying. If the company's own insiders (mainly executives) are buying the stock, and it pays a pretty big dividend, then that is a stock for me. Also, near the last few months of the year especially, I do some searches for firms announcing special dividends and if it is a really hefty percentage, I like to get in before the ex-dividend date on one or two of those selections if it makes sense, meaning I don't want to buy a dog but I will overlook some shortcomings to get a fat year-end special dividend. Finally, a strategy that may be harder than it sounds but can work and has been successful in the past with MSFT and CTXS was to locate a repeating trading range and gamble that it will continue for a while, and simply buy at the historical low price when it falls to the low end of the repeating range and sell at the high end when the stock reaches near the top of the price range.

Well that's it for now players. I know, it's not easy. When you learn one thing, it opens up ten more questions, and when you get those answered, it leads to a hundred more areas of research. That's how it is with most worthwhile disciplines. That's why people who have been at it for four decades show up to work at four in the morning and stay at their computer screens for fifteen hours a day. But did I mention that it's more fun and interesting than investing in an index fund?

My Beneficiary IRA Investment Strategy; First Take

I feel that this site is a good place to communicate and maybe even to some extent work through an investment plan I intend to execute for a Beneficiary IRA I have recently opened. This strategy is not advice, merely a transparent view as to what I intend to do; others in similar situations can do as they wish with this information. Readers are encouraged to review my investment strategy primer by clicking "Investment Notes" at http://www.foothill.edu/bss/people/moglen-david/index.php.
There are many sites from which one can draw up watchlists. Stock picks can be tracked at sites like yahoo finance or Google finance, but since I have a regular investment account at Sharebuilder.com, I like the simplicity and some other aspects of keeping watchlists there. When I frequently log in to view my watchlists, which I feel should be constructed well before buying any shares, what I am skimming the list for is any stock that has moved up or down by more than two percent, or at least moved more than 1.5%. Any daily variance less than that is probably just noise.
For the Beneficiary IRA I took the extra step of listing potential targets (all of which are already on my Sharebuilder watchlists) into an excel spreadsheet with the following columns: Ticker Symbol, Dividend Yield, Cash per share (as a %), PE Ratio, and Payout Ratio. All of these are easily available to the public even without starting an account at Sharebuilder and other investment sites.
Next I want to divide targets into (up to) five buckets, which I call A, B, C, D, and E. Bucket A is the best - high dividend and stable at a reasonable price on a PE ratio basis. There are two clear Bucket A stocks for me so far, AT&T and Verizon. Bucket B would be incrementally less ideal; most likely, based on the "blue chip" or "dividend aristocrat" large-cap and mega-cap selections I'm targeting, the shortcoming of groups B, C, D, etc. are lower yields than AT&T, and then possibly other worse metrics in other excel columns specified.
I would like to see a market pullback (which we may get around mid-to-late February or early March based on debt ceiling wrangling in DC) but whether we get one or not, at some point I have to start a position in some stocks. Here is the opening allocation. Note that everything I want to buy is not bought on the same day or in the same week. I will stagger purchase dates through several months in 2014, maybe even across the majority of the year's 12 months, for opening positions in each stock. But at some point, here is the opening allocation: Group A stocks: $500. Group B stocks: $450. Group C stocks: $400. Group D stocks: $350. Group E stocks: $300.
Scaling: when any of these solid, well-established dividend paying large- and mega-cap stocks falls 8% to 15% (the higher end of this range is for markets or securities subject to greater volatility) then I will add to that position in an amount that is $50-$150 greater than my initial buy-in for that stock. For example, let's say it was a group C stock with $400 initially bought. Whether this second buy is more like an additional $550 in shares or just $450 more in the position depends how much conviction you have about the firm's prospects. All of the scaling (buying more as it went down) is dependent on the underlying "thesis" - strength of the company - having not changed materially. In other words, it is not at apparent risk of imminent bankruptcy. This should be the case for all firms being considered (I don't think Cisco or Phizer are going bankrupt in the near future, if ever) but it is a caveat worth mentioning.
If a stock, especially one in the A or B categories, has gone up only a little (less than 10%) then I would probably buy an additional round of their shares the same as I was for those that had gone down (traditional scaling). If it had gone up more than 10%, I would have to be extremely confident in further price gains and/or dividend increases to buy more. In keeping with all this, I would probably buy a second $500 round of some or all "A" stocks within six months if they have not skyrocketed unnaturally.
This is a good start to understand my main intended strategy. A smaller, much riskier portion may involve buying a handful of mortgage REITs (mREITs) but doing so requires much more of investors - more frequent and thorough research on the sector, a strong stomach for the price roller coaster, more frequent (preferably daily) monitoring, and occasional use of stop-limit orders when price drops (capital loss) are too much to stomach. This portion of the portfolio defines reaching for dividend yield, which conventional advice says to never do, but I feel for my portfolio I can reach for a certain amount of steroidal dividend yield at the cost of more likely and more extensive capital loss as long as I take the stated actions to respect the substantial risk as I go in. As mentioned, the majority strategy (everything stated before this paragraph) constitutes what I believe is a responsible approach to my Beneficiary IRA.
Let me know what you think. I'm interested in ideas or comments. It should be an interesting ride.

Goldman Sachs Invests in Motif Investing

I saw this really interesting article in the DealBook Section of the New York Times online:
Goldman Invests in Upstart Online Broker Primarily it goes into the investment Wall Street standard-bearer Goldman Sachs made into Motif Investing. This supports not only what I wrote in the previous post, that this is the democratization of the mutual fund industry, and even moreso that those in the know view it as the future of the mutual fund industry, or at the very least a promising direction for the industry's future. The article also gets into some of the startup's board members, which include former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt. This fact bodes well for their legal sustainability. The final detail in the article goes to the sites plans for monetization for user-created funds, which I think is very strategically being referred to as a "royalty" structure: "In February, the company began allowing investors to create their own portfolios from scratch, and said those investors would eventually be eligible for royalties if others wanted to buy their themed portfolios."

Food for thought, no doubt.

The Democratization of the Mutual Fund Industry

While the verdict is still out on how Motif Investing (as described in the last two posts) will be, my preliminary assessment is that this could well be the democratization of the mutual fund industry. When I consider the possibility of putting together several Motifs, theme-based funds, with very little investment, let alone a promotional offer that covers trading expenses if you follow the promo's requirements, it looks like an opening to the world of diversified and informed fund investment for both the original fund creator such as myself and the retail investor.

Fund Update and Details on the $50 Promo Offer

At the end of this email, you can see the full "fine print" details of the $50 promotional offer mentioned in my last post. While I recommend you read it, and as you saw in my last post here, a very useful customer service email service@motifinvesting.com is provided should you have any questions for Motif Investing, I will lay out the main "fine print" stipulations now: to receive the $50, one must create a new account by following the directions in the email from me. If you did not receive this email inviting you to Motif, or even if you did get it but would like to get it again, please email me and request the Motif invite email at davidmoglen@hotmail.com. Within ten days of opening the new account, one must have it successfully funded with the $1000 minimum needed to qualify for the $50 promotional bonus, and the money must be left in the account for 45 days to keep the $50. After 45 days, if you no longer want an account, you can request a check or bank transfer for free for all the money back plus their free $50 at that point. The other key stipulations are these two: one, you must make at least one trade, and two, you must have cookies enabled in your browser settings.
To the first point, I would recommend buying a Motif, meaning either a fund I created or one of the many you can find with great themes (I will be giving my favorite Motifs -theme based funds- that they created in a post here in the near future) by clicking on search Motifs. The minimum investment is $250, so you could keep the other $750 of your $1000 account funding as cash in the account, and get your $250 investment, your initial cash remaining from what you put in to fund the account($1000-$250=) $750, and the $50 promotional cash all back if you wanted after leaving it in for at least 45 days. Of course, I would hope most people would look at this as a platform for long-term investments, but if people just want to cash out their free $50 ASAP then that is their right. Regarding the second point, cookies, I would recommend clicking on your browser options and make sure anything saying cookies is enabled, not disabled, because if they can not track the new account registration from you accepting the invite in my email (again, email me at davidmoglen@hotmail.com if you do not have this invite email) then they do not honor the promotional offer. You can always email their support at service@motifinvesting.com if you need any assistance making sure you've fulfilled their requirements on this promo.

I welcome everyone's input on topics such as ideal holdings in funds to be created in the future. I can tell you the top Motif themes that I plan to make are as follows (#1 is the one already created, as my invite email already mentioned):

1. Ultra High Dividend Fund
2. Ultra High Dividend Diversified Fund
3. Ultra High Dividend Focused Fund
4. Content is King Fund
5. Lagging the Rally Fund
6. Social Responsibility Fund

#1, also known as the "Don't Fight the Fed" Fund, is laid out in the fund description in the previous posting on this site. The Diversified version (#2) would take the same theme but add more holdings along the same criteria in each sub-category. This would be good for those who like the idea of the Ultra High Dividend Fund but are seeking a step change in terms of less risk and more diversity. Those who would like to move in the opposite direction might prefer (#3) the Focused version of the Ultra High Dividend Fund fund, as it would do the opposite of #2 and actually reduce the number of holdings, cutting away the more conservative dividend plays, and just going full-bore for the extremely high-yielding REITS, especially mortgage REITS, and even find some more of these further out on the risk-return spectrum to target even more enhanced yield within this sub-category.
#4 plays on the idea that Content is King, meaning firms such as CBS who make entertainment content are doing very well in this era when conventional and new digital and mobile channels are competing for their output. #5 describes a fund that would look for value stocks that have not participated much in the recent market runup, on the theory that they will catch up over time. My final idea at this time, #6, would assemble firms that had proven themselves responsible corporate citizens. To reiterate, I am seeking input on these or other investing ideas you may have, and when any new funds are created you will get the email like you did with #1, and if you did not get that invite email already please let me know at davidmoglen@hotmail.com.

Thanks and let me know if you have any questions.

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